The International Environment of 2030: Greece in the New Geoeconomic Reality

[3m 58s read]

The world is entering a new historical era in which economics, technology, and geopolitics can no longer be regarded as separate domains; instead, they are becoming increasingly interconnected. The post-Cold War era, which was built on the free movement of capital, goods, and technology, is gradually being replaced by a new geoeconomic reality in which economic power, supply chains, energy, artificial intelligence, and critical technologies are becoming fundamental instruments of national power. My speech on 6 August 2026 at the Konstantinos Karamanlis Institute for Democracy highlighted precisely this transition and sought to outline both the challenges and the opportunities that Greece will face by 2030.

The starting point of the analysis is that understanding the international environment cannot be based on ideological approaches or political preferences, but rather on the scientific analysis of actual data. Only through the objective assessment of developments can effective strategies be formulated, enabling states to take advantage of emerging opportunities while addressing threats in a timely manner. Following the Second World War, an international system was established based on rules, institutions, and cooperation, with respect for the sovereignty of each state as one of its fundamental principles. Today, however, this international order is increasingly being challenged by revisionist powers seeking to replace the rules-based system with a system of spheres of influence.

This confrontation is not merely geopolitical. It represents a deeper conflict between two different conceptions of how the international economy and international politics should be organised. On one side are the democratic, predominantly maritime powers, whose development is based on freedom of navigation, international trade, and multilateral institutions of cooperation, such as the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund. These countries view international markets as a space for cooperation and mutual benefit. On the other side are revisionist powers, such as Russia, China, Iran, and Turkey, which maintain imperial ambitions, seek exclusive spheres of influence, and use their military and economic power as instruments of geopolitical coercion.

This confrontation creates two major problems for the global economy. The first concerns the disruption of the production and movement of goods. The use of energy, raw materials, maritime transportation, and supply chains as instruments of geopolitical pressure leads to inflation, energy insecurity, declining purchasing power and, ultimately, social and political instability. The second problem concerns unfair competition in international trade, whereby certain countries accumulate enormous trade surpluses through state intervention and the artificial undervaluation of their currencies, pushing other economies into persistent deficits, excessive indebtedness, and deindustrialisation.

Particular attention should be paid to China. The maintenance of an artificially undervalued yuan, combined with extensive state subsidies, enables Chinese companies to dominate international markets through exceptionally low prices, generating annual trade surpluses approaching $1.2 trillion. As a result, China’s trading partners are forced to finance their corresponding deficits through borrowing, placing additional pressure on their fiscal stability and weakening their industrial base. This problem is not new; it is reminiscent of Japan’s position during the 1980s, which was eventually addressed through the 1985 Plaza Accord.

At the same time, artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as the second major transformative force of our era. AI should not be viewed merely as a means of reducing costs or increasing productivity, but as a technology capable of enabling the implementation of ideas that until now remained impractical because of constraints in time, human resources, and computing power. The automation of a substantial proportion of everyday tasks allows people to devote more time to critical thinking, the generation of new ideas, and decision-making.

Particular emphasis must also be placed on the emergence of the new geoeconomy, in which economic power is directly linked to technological and industrial capabilities. Energy infrastructure, microprocessors, rare earth elements, supply chains, data, and artificial intelligence have now become critical components of national security. Microprocessors have become the “nervous system” of the modern economy, as virtually every modern weapons system, industrial facility, and digital service depends on them. The exceptionally high concentration of advanced semiconductor production in Taiwan therefore creates a new strategic vulnerability, as a potential crisis in the region could generate severe disruption throughout the global economy.

Within this new environment, access to international networks is becoming increasingly important. Access to markets, energy, semiconductors, financial services, data, and digital networks now determines not only a country’s economic development but also its political stability. Supply-chain security is becoming a central pillar of national strategy, while supplier diversification, the development of domestic production capacity, and the establishment of strategic reserves can reduce the risk that an external crisis will evolve into domestic economic and social instability.

For Greece, this new reality creates a historic opportunity. Its geographical position at the crossroads of the Eastern Mediterranean, the Balkans, and Europe enables it to develop into a hub for energy, data, technology, and security. Infrastructure such as LNG terminals, electricity interconnections, natural-gas pipelines, and offshore wind farms, together with major projects such as the Vertical Gas Corridor, GREGY, EastMed, the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), and the recently developed Great Sea Interconnector, among others, can significantly strengthen Greece’s geoeconomic role and establish the country as a key European gateway to the Middle East and Asia.

Equal importance should be attached to the development of national artificial intelligence capabilities. AI should be treated as a form of public infrastructure, comparable to electricity or telecommunications networks, ensuring that citizens and businesses have easy and affordable access to its capabilities. The next phase of artificial intelligence can be understood through four principal pillars: the economic utilisation of AI; its integration into physical systems (Physical AI); the development of national artificial-intelligence ecosystems (Sovereign AI); and the establishment of robust governance mechanisms for autonomous AI agents.

The fundamental objective of every modern state should therefore be resilience. Economic growth, however important, is not sufficient on its own. Social cohesion, energy security, technological autonomy, a strong productive base, and the capacity to absorb external shocks without undermining political stability are equally essential. A country’s real power will increasingly depend on its ability to participate reliably in international networks of production, technology, finance, and trade while simultaneously preserving its autonomy and democratic cohesion.

In this new geoeconomic era, Greece is therefore called upon not merely to adapt to developments, but to leverage its strategic geographical position and human capital in order to become a pillar of stability, innovation, and economic development for the wider region.